How accurate is Ken Ring?

His prediction was only on the right side of the average 17 times in 48 attemps, about 35% accuracy and signficantly worse that you would expect to get from tossing a coin (if you’re one of those p-value fetishists p, in this case, is equal to about 0.03) . So Ken Ring can’t predict the weather.

How accurate is long range forecast?

The Short Answer: A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.

What is long range forecasts?

Long range forecasts provide information about expected future atmospheric and oceanic conditions, averaged over periods of one to three months. Like the medium and extended ranges, the long range forecasts are produced by the IFS coupled ocean-atmosphere model.

Who predicted the Christchurch earthquake?

Ring’s methods have been shown to be unscientific and have been widely confirmed as fake and pseudoscience by many scientists in the fields of meteorology and geology. Ring says he predicted the 4 September 2010 Christchurch earthquake and the deadly 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake.

Who has the best long range weather forecast?

The reason to start here is simple: if the long-term forecasts had high accuracy we would simply always choose them. NOAA explore this question and have come up with the following rule of thumb. A 5-day forecast is correct about 90% of the time, 7-day is 80% and beyond that the forecast becomes less reliable.

Which method is used for long-range projections?

Instead, long-range forecasters have tended to use the climatological approach, often concerning themselves with the broad weather picture over a period of time rather than attempting to forecast day-to-day details.

Which type of forecasting is more accurate and why?

Of the four choices (simple moving average, weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, and single regression analysis), the weighted moving average is the most accurate, since specific weights can be placed in accordance with their importance.

Do you live longer in warmer climates?

In addition, warmer climates might allow people to live longer, according to some studies. Stanford University researchers found that warmer conditions over a period of time in the United States lowered the mortality rates, compared to the winter months, when the death rates peaked.